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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."