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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new proposal from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.